In recent years, the downward pressure on domestic economic growth, economic restructuring pains intensified, both inside and outside the grim situation, the construction machinery industry caused a greater challenge. Real estate industry is highly associated with the construction machinery continued downward, engineering crane bear the brunt. According to the Engineering Machinery Industry Association statistics, in 2016 China's total sales of 15957 cranes, compared with a decrease of 3063 units in 2014, down by 16.1%. Since 2012 has continued to decline, and the average decline of more than 15%.
2017 sales of 3814 units in the first quarter, a substantial increase of 110.4%, in March a single month sales of 1767 units, an increase of +80.5%, +39.6%, the positive growth for the last 7 months. In fact, this growth early in the three quarter of 2016, when the excavator appeared significantly warmer trend can be predicted, excavator as a leading indicator of the construction machinery industry recovery, the sales data to pick up, we will judge there are cranes, concrete machinery sales growth, time lag of about a quarter to half a year, so we expect 2017 sales are expected to grow by more than 30% cranes.
Crane is the largest application area of reducer
According to the prospective industry Research Institute released the "2017-2022 Chinese reducer industry market outlook and investment strategy planning analysis report" data show that downstream applications industry including reducer lifting transport, cement, mining, metallurgy, electric power and heavy air ship with the national economy and defense industry in various fields, among them, the number of speed reducer the products use heavy transport industry accounted for 24.76%, the number of cement building materials industry reducer products accounted for 15.25%, heavy mining industry accounted for 9.88%.
We expect the driving force for the recovery of the crane industry is mainly based on the following two aspects: infrastructure needs to pick up, update demand superimposed.
First, infrastructure and real estate driven new demand. The application field of crane is based on the construction of infrastructure, including the construction of railway, highway, water conservancy and other infrastructure, and infrastructure construction is a continuous process, the duration of at least 3-4 years. At present, the domestic infrastructure in the promotion of PPP model, urban rail transit, railway lines and branch construction, mining, water conservancy and other infrastructure needs to pick up. Supply side reform in 2016, driven by coal, steel, cement and other prices, thereby promoting the sale of large construction machinery products.
Secondly, the need to update the superimposed drive. The recent engineering machinery sales accounted for a larger share of upgrading, general engineering machinery life of 6-10 years, from the current construction machinery industry peak (2007-2011) also has the 6-10 years, 2-3 years a large demand space for future updates. Automobile crane industry in 2010-2011 sales volume, the annual sales of more than 30 thousand consecutive years, reaching the highest sales in history.
Hoisting and transport equipment as reducer is most widely used in the industry, the industry will be along with the steady development of our economy and the international economic environment improvement and rapid development, at the same time, the development speed of the crane industry will directly affect the growth of the market demand of speed reducer. Is expected to "13th Five-Year" period, China's lifting transportation equipment manufacturing industry will continue to maintain the momentum of rapid growth, benefit from this, will also be effective in stimulating demand reducer.
