In the first month of the second quarter, how much did the sales of the heavy-duty truck market ultimately end? Is it an increase or a decrease? Will gas vehicles continue to double in price? Will electric heavy-duty trucks exceed 5000 vehicles? Will heavy truck exports continue to maintain year-on-year growth? A series of problems are stirring the hearts of the entire industry.
In April, the heavy-duty truck market sold 87000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 5%
According to preliminary data, in April 2024, China's heavy-duty truck market sold about 87000 vehicles (invoicing standards, including exports and new energy), a decrease of 25% compared to March, an increase of 5% from 83000 vehicles in the same period last year, and a net increase of about 4000 vehicles.
Looking at 87000 vehicles in the past eight years, it is higher than April 2022 (43800 vehicles) and April 2023 (83100 vehicles), and lower than April sales in other years. Overall, from January to April 2024, China's heavy-duty truck market sold approximately 360000 vehicles of various types, an increase of 11% compared to the same period last year, with a net increase of 35000 vehicles. The cumulative sales of 360000 vehicles are equivalent to an average monthly sales of 89900 vehicles in the first four months of this year, an increase of 8700 vehicles from the same period last year's 81100 vehicles. The heavy-duty truck market is still on the rise in 2024.
Overall, there are several characteristics worth paying attention to in the heavy-duty truck industry in April. Firstly, the invoicing sales performance is not as good as the actual sales performance of the terminal. In April, domestic heavy-duty truck terminal sales are expected to increase by about 25% year-on-year, but industry invoicing sales have only increased by about 5% year-on-year. The main reason for this is the high inventory in the industry, which is being digested by various enterprises.
Secondly, from the perspective of driving forces, the slight year-on-year growth in the heavy-duty truck market in April is mainly due to the combined effect of three sub sectors: gas vehicles, exports, and new energy. So, what are the performance of these three segmented markets?
Gas vehicles are expected to soar 1.7 times in April, with electric heavy-duty trucks reaching 4000+
In April 2024, the heavy-duty truck market saw a year-on-year increase in gas vehicles, exports, and new energy.
First, let's take a look at gas vehicles. Since January this year, gas heavy-duty trucks have experienced explosive growth, with sales increasing by 96% year-on-year in January, 49% year-on-year in February, and nearly 30000 units in March, a year-on-year increase of 208%; In April, the sales of domestic natural gas heavy-duty trucks only fell in single digits compared to March, with an expected range of 27000-28000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 170-180%. The domestic terminal market share is expected to exceed 40% (higher than March).
The hot sales of gas vehicles are a true reflection of the current bleak freight market. Since the second half of last year until now, the logistics transportation industry has been plagued by a shortage of vehicles, overcapacity, and low freight rates, which have continuously troubled freight users and the heavy-duty truck market. In this low freight environment, the rapid increase in the proportion of gas vehicles, the large-scale replacement of oil vehicles by "gas vehicles", and the continuous decline in the proportion of diesel models have become difficult to reverse.
In April, LNG prices also maintained a relatively "friendly" trend. In April, the wholesale price of one kilogram of LNG in China remained stable at around 4 to 4.3 yuan (although there was an increase in late April, it was relatively mild and remained around 4.3 yuan). During the same period, the price of one liter of No. 0 diesel has risen to over 7.6 yuan, and the price difference between oil and gas has steadily widened by more than 3-3.5 yuan, demonstrating the economic advantages of gas vehicles. The popularity of gas heavy-duty trucks is an inevitable result of the dual low environment of low freight rates and low gas prices.
Looking at new energy heavy-duty trucks again. Since the beginning of this year, the development trajectory of new energy heavy-duty trucks and gas vehicles has been quite similar, with continuous outbreaks since the beginning of the year, and April is no exception. It is expected that the terminal sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks will reach over 4000 in April this year (with a delivery volume of over 5000 vehicles), a year-on-year increase of over 75%, but there will be a slight decline compared to the previous month, with an expected decrease of about 25%. The progress of new energy heavy-duty trucks can be described as soaring.
Driven by the significant growth of gas vehicles and new energy heavy-duty trucks, First Commercial Vehicle Network predicts that the domestic heavy-duty truck terminal sales in April this year will be higher than the 55000 vehicles in the same period last year, showing a year-on-year increase of about 25%, with overall sales of approximately 68000 to 69000 vehicles.
Except for gas and electric vehicles, heavy truck exports still maintained year-on-year growth in April. In April this year, heavy truck exports are expected to increase by about 5% year-on-year, while the month on month growth in March is basically unchanged. Despite the rapid decline in export volume in the Russian region, it is not easy for China's heavy-duty truck exports to continue to maintain an overall year-on-year increase.
