On November 30th, 2021, Service Industry Research Center of National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, made an interpretation.
In November, the index of manufacturing purchasing managers was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The index of non-manufacturing business activities was 52.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from last month; The comprehensive PMI output index was 52.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from last month, and all three indexes were in the expansion range, indicating that China's economic prosperity level has generally picked up.
I. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index has obviously picked up.
Recently, a series of policies and measures to strengthen energy supply security and stabilize market prices have achieved remarkable results. In November, the tight power supply situation eased, the prices of some raw materials dropped significantly, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, indicating that the manufacturing production and operation activities have been accelerated and the prosperity level has improved. According to the industry situation, among the 21 industries surveyed, 12 are higher than the critical point, 3 more than last month, and the manufacturing boom has expanded. Main features of this month:
First, both supply and demand have picked up. The production index was 52.0%, up 3.6 percentage points from last month, rising to the expansion range. Recently, the power supply capacity has been continuously improved, and the manufacturing capacity has been released rapidly. Among them, the production index of papermaking and printing, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical and mechanical equipment and other industries is higher than 56.0%, and the production activities of the industries are significantly accelerated. The new orders index was 49.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating that the demand side of manufacturing industry has improved from last month. Among them, industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, refined tea of food, wine and beverage entered the traditional peak season, and the new order index rose to a higher boom range of over 55.0%; However, industries such as wood processing and furniture, chemical raw materials and chemicals, ferrous metal smelting and calendering are in the low range below 43.0%, and the market demand of these industries is weak.
Second, the price index fell sharply. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 52.9% and 48.9%, respectively, which were significantly lower than last month's 19.2 and 12.2 percentage points, in which the ex-factory price index fell below the critical point, indicating that the recent implementation of policies such as "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" has been continuously strengthened, and the rapid price increase has been curbed. From the industry situation, the two price indices of chemical raw materials and chemicals, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing and other industries all dropped significantly, falling below the critical point, indicating that the purchase price and product sales price of some basic raw material production industries dropped significantly.
Third, the import and export index continues to rise. Affected by the sustained recovery of the world economy, the approaching Christmas consumption season abroad and other factors, the prosperity of foreign trade continued to improve last month. The new export order index and import index were 48.5% and 48.1%, respectively, up 1.9 and 0.6 percentage points from last month. From the perspective of industry, the index of new export orders in pharmaceutical, automobile, electrical machinery and equipment industries is higher than that of last month by more than 3.0 percentage points, rising to the expansion range, and the order quantity of export products in industries has increased.
Fourth, the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.2%, which remained above the critical point, basically the same as last month. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises is 51.2%, ending the contraction trend for two consecutive months and rising above the critical point, in which the production index and new order index are in the expansion range, reflecting the recent recovery of production and demand of medium-sized enterprises. The PMI of small enterprises is 48.5%, up 1.0 percentage points from last month, and the prosperity of small enterprises has improved.
Fifth, PMI of key industries has rebounded to varying degrees. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing industry and consumer goods industry were 53.2%, 51.7% and 51.4% respectively, up by 1.2%, 0.5% and 1.7% from last month, and the expansion of the industry was accelerated. The PMI of high energy-consuming industries was 47.4%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points from last month, and still in the contraction range.
Second, the non-manufacturing business activity index has been expanding for three consecutive months.
In November, the index of non-manufacturing business activities was 52.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, which continued to be higher than the critical point, and the overall non-manufacturing industry maintained a stable recovery.
The prosperity level of service industry has dropped. This round of multi-point epidemic spread to many areas, and some industries were greatly affected. The business activity index of service industry was 51.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, and the overall recovery of service industry slowed down. From the perspective of industry, the business activity index of producer services closely related to manufacturing activities is located in the high boom range of over 55.0%, in which the total business volume of information services, financial services, business services and other industries is growing rapidly. The business activity index of life service industry, which is closely related to contact consumption, dropped below the critical point, among which the business activity index of accommodation, ecological protection and environmental governance, culture, sports and entertainment industries all dropped sharply to 46.0% or below, and the market activity dropped significantly. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 58.2%, which continues to be in a relatively high boom range, indicating that most enterprises have generally stable confidence in the recent recovery of the service market.
The expansion of the construction industry has accelerated. The business activity index and new order index of the construction industry were 59.1% and 54.2%, respectively, up by 2.2 and 1.9 percentage points from last month, and the production and market demand of the construction industry both expanded rapidly. According to the industry situation, the business activity index and new order index of civil engineering construction industry were 60.5% and 56.5% respectively, up by 5.4 and 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating that with the gradual landing of some major projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan, the progress of infrastructure construction has been accelerated.
Third, the comprehensive PMI output index continued to expand.
In November, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.2%, up by 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has accelerated. Manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, are 52.0% and 52.3% respectively.
