Core portfolio: Sany heavy industry, Hengli Hydraulic, Eddy precision, Zhejiang Dingli, Chunfeng power, Jiejia Weichuang, Pioneer Intelligence, Guomao stock, Zhongmi Holding, Bachu Electronics, Huafeng measurement and control, Huafeng test key portfolio: Sinovel precision, Maiwei stock, Zhichun Technology, construction machinery, zoomlion heavy technology, Jake stock, Jerry stock, Hongya CNC, Tuosida, meiya optoelectronics, Kelai electromechanical, focus on Okeyi, Zhenbang Intelligent View This Week: Credit Cycle as an important forward-looking indicators, automation boom is expected to extend beyond expectations. The automation sector mainly includes industrial control, industrial robots, injection molding machines, laser processing, cutting machine tools, etc. . It has obvious resonance in the Stock Price Performance and the industry cycle, we use the credit cycle as an indicator to measure the prosperity of an industry, these include: 1) M1 growth rate; 2) corporate financing capacity. At the current time, M1-M2 is still in the expansion period, due to its leading significance, we believe that this round of automation high cycle is expected to extend beyond expectations, previously expected high in 2021 Q2. The unexpected impetus may come from: 1) the current credit expansion cycle has a large tilt toward the real world, especially the manufacturing sector, driving strong demand for automation in the manufacturing sector; 2) the new crown epidemic has accelerated the spread of unmanned, automated processing; 3) the effective recovery of the overseas economy, and the logic of Chinese manufacturing companies'export substitution is irreversible. Suggested attention: Aston, Pacho Electronics, E & M mainstream small and medium-sized market value target screening, core asset adjustment pregnant with a new round of opportunities. Recently, due to the rise of risk-free interest rate and the shift of market style from DCF Valuation to Traditional Peg Valuation, the attention of small and medium-sized machinery companies has increased. We believe that the general rise of small and medium-sized votes May follow-up differentiation, the ultimate probability of funds to choose excellent quality of the mainstream small and medium-sized market-value companies. According to certain dimensions, 26 companies were selected from 300 + machinery companies, mainly including: Anhui Heli, Hangzhou Fork Group; Jake shares of sewing machine marks; Haozhi electromechanical, Guosheng Zhike, huarui precision, Oukeyi of CNC machine marks; and the hidden champions in various subsectors, Campsis grandiflora pump industry, Huarong shares, Yindu shares, Weiguang shares, etc. . Construction Machinery: According to CME, sales of excavators in March were + 45.7% year on year, exceeding market expectations: The domestic market of excavators in 2021 was estimated to sell 67,000 units, up about 43.75% year on year, while the export market was estimated to sell 5,000 units, up about 78.7% year on year. Sales growth in the domestic market was higher in March than in the previous two months, but the growth rate was significantly slower than in the previous two months, mainly due to the peak sales volume in March 2020 and the low rate of opening in all provinces and municipalities in early March due to the influence of the two sessions and the rainy season. According to the forecast, 119,906 excavators were sold in the 2021 from January to March, up 74.71 percent year on year, of which 107,588 were sold in the domestic market, up 75.57 percent year on year, and 12,318 were sold in the export market, up 67.5 percent year on year. Investment proposal: Focus on the leading, continue to recommend sany heavy industry, zoomlion heavy branch, Hengli hydraulic, Eddy precision. NEW ENERGY EQUIPMENT: 14TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC and wind power installation. According to the fifteen plan, by 2030, non fossil energy will account for about 25 percent of China's primary energy consumption, and the total installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts. We have calculated the new installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in the 14th five-year plan. The results show that when the proportion of non-fossil energy is 19% , 20% and 21% respectively in 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power is 80GW/34GW, 98GW/45GW and 115GW/57GW respectively. RECOMMENDED CONCERNS: lithium-ion devices continue to focus on the recommendation of pilot intelligence, beneficiary of the target Hangzhou can technology, focus on first benefit technology. RISK TIPS: HJT cost reduction less than expected, lower investment less than expected, industry competition intensified, raw material price fluctuations.
